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I know that podcasts are all about the highest quality sound and I know that s a Hiel PR-40 mic and you have a pop-thing on it and it looks so great. Are you using a USB or is that going into a. Rob I use and by the way, I m hearing feedback on my end. Guy What does that mean. Rob I can hear my own voice. I don t know if that s getting picked up on the recording or not.

Guy I have no idea but it s really hot here and we don t have air-conditioning so I don t know. If I put some did that feedback go away now. Rob Yeah, I think it did. Guy It was feeding out of the microphone and into the speakers. Your sound is feeding out of the microphone and into the speakers basically. Rob When I bought this microphone and I know nothing about this stuff I just assumed it would have a USB plug on the end of it and I could just plug it into my computer and I was wrong.

Then I did some research and ended up buying a Steinberg UR-22 which is just a box and you plug the mic into it and then out the end of it there is another cord that converts it to USB and I just plug it into my computer. Anyway, I think what you also have is reflection of the desk so it s not as high-quality audio but I think what I love about the podcast medium is that there s an intimacy to it which is just incredible.

You re right up there close with your audience. Rob That really took me by surprise. I ve been blogging for 10 years. I started the podcast almost four years ago and when I was blogging I d get an email every now and again from someone who had read an article but it wasn t very frequent. I don t recall when I first heard of Guy Spier.

When I started podcasting, I got a flood of email. I ve gotten to the point now where I read every single email. I tell people that and it s true, but I don t give substantive responses because I can t. I would spend all day responding to email. What I do instead is take a lot of the questions people ask me and answer them on the podcast. I ve had meet-ups where we ll meet up at coffee shops here locally in the Washington, DC area. So yeah, there is definitely a connection you make with your listeners that you just don t with the written word.

Guy Yeah, it s quite incredible and I ve thought about podcasting mainly because of the fun of connecting to people and the incredible closeness you get to them. I record a podcast with somebody and two or three hours later somebody is emailing me about it and I m blown away. I was going to ask you, what fills the bank account if you re not selling advertisement which I think is great, by the way. Rob The blog basically drives the business side of it the website. It s also very it s a medium that s very there s a high longevity.

At times I ve thought about advertising on the podcast and I came really, really close just a couple of months ago to signing a deal to run ads and it just didn t seem right. It s not that I ll never the day could come when I decide to advertise on the podcast. I don t want to say never but part of me just thought, you have to know when you have enough. I have enough so I just view the podcast as something I enjoy doing and a way to give back that s not motivated by money.

I really enjoy listening to Tim Ferriss podcasts. They re great. There s an element to which he s pushing an angle where he s kind of just pushing some particular thing. And, there I am with whatever it is I m doing and I suddenly realize I ve listened to a few minutes worth of him plugging something. There s iq option nao abre that s not completely pure about that. At the end of the day people have to put bread on the table so I guess it s is okay.

I don t know what you think of John Lee Dumas, JLD. He, as well, has just got a wonderful podcast and it s really inspiring. Again, this applies to the podcast because he s making money out of them as well. He s getting affiliate fees. Rob The truth is, Guy, I don t listen to a lot of podcasts which is maybe ironic, I don t know. I ve listened to both of theirs and I joined John Lee Dumas he had a forum for podcasters when I was first getting started. He publishes his income online and is making six-figures a month.

I think he and his girlfriend moved to Puerto Rico not long ago. Maybe for some of the tax advantages there but he s obviously built up a tremendous business. And Tim Ferris, depending on who his guest is, I think his interviews are some of the best out there. So you re based in DC and I m honored that you wanted me to come onto your show. Rob You re honored. I m honored that you said yes.

I wasn t sure I would even get a return email when I reached out to you. You emailed me right away and I m grateful. And look, I ve got a whole card full of questions. One of the things we want to talk about is Amazon and I m sure you saw that they just signed a deal to buy Whole Foods which I may ask you about. But yeah, if it s okay I ll jump right in. Rob I want to start with what I think has got to be the most important topic we ll discuss today and that is whether you still play chess.

He keeps asking me for games so I play him. Guy You know, I play with my son. I have a question mark in my mind though. Every time I play him, I play him as well as I can. I don t want to shield him from how well I play which is not all that well. I want to go online and play but it s such a time-sink. The last time I went online which is probably more than a year ago I got so depressed at my rating I had people at a chess rating of 900 beating me so I don t know that I can say I regularly play chess anymore.

Rob When you play online, where do you play. Guy The Internet Chess Club is the place I ve enjoyed playing. I could open that up anytime and start playing. They have a great app which is sitting here on my desktop. It s easy with Blitzin. If you like playing we can play each other. I could pull out a game right now. Rob I d love to actually but I don t know if I m set up with the Internet Chess Club. I play at chess24. Guy And what s your rating. Rob It s funny you should ask.

Guy Did you hear that. Guy I just loaded my Blitzin to see what s going on there. Rob Right now my rating is 2,100 on chess24. Guy You re a very good player. I have never gotten that high. My highest rating ever is about 1,600. Rob Well, if you had asked me a couple of days ago my rating on chess24 could very easily been 1,700 or 1,800.

I tend to go through spurts where I win a lot and then lose a lot so my rating can fluctuate by 400 points or so, on Chess24. I d go and play a bunch of 900 rated guys and play really badly or intentionally lose or make a sacrifice where I had no chance of winning up against and watch my rating go down to about 1,200. Guy Actually, when I playing with people with a 1,500 or 1,600 ratings, something I used to enjoy doing would be to deliberately take my rating down.

Then I d get all of these guys challenging me to a 1,200 rated game and I d smash them really good laughs. So the most satisfying thing for me and I m talking to you now, I have enormous respect for you. To play to 2,100 if I m not mistaken, 2,500 is Grand Master. You ought to be able to beat me at every game we play just based on 2,100 compared to what my rating is. I love open games. I love breaking open anything no strategy left and just pure tactics. When I was playing a lot I really used to enjoy pawn storms.

To get a kings opening and then just figure out a pawn storm and to watch and feel the impending sense of doom the other player feels as his defenses are totally ripped to pieces I m sorry I m just diving deep into it. There s a player called Bronstein, whose games one can look at. He always played open games and, of course, the open games are always a wild ride because there are always twists and turns of fate that you d never know how the hell they re going to go.

Just talking about it is kind of fun. What really annoys me is when people play this closed, sort of, trench fighting. I always try to rip those things open. My play is very much in the direction of a duffer in that I find it really, really hard to keep my wits about me and keep a cool and level head as the game gets exciting. When I followed it closely, I just never enjoyed the way Karpov played.

I never, ever enjoyed it. And even then, the thing is, the way Kasparov would play is he was a much more dynamic player. Even he realized that in order to win you really have to button it down and that just makes the play less interesting, it seems, to me. But no, I don t play near as much or enough. There is something about playing on a real board in a real open session. I don t know if you have anything like this in Washington, but in New York City there are these amazing places where you can go and just pick up games.

Rob Yeah, in New York City well, now St. Louis has become more of the chess capital of the US because of the great things they ve done there at the Chess Club and the Chess Hall of Fame, but New York is probably still the dominant location for Grand Masters. I think I read you were a member of the Marshall Chess Club at one point. I ve played there. There are great places to play there in the park. In fact, I m playing in a tournament that starts tonight but, no, it s not like New York City.

Guy But good for you that you re playing. I can t honestly claim that I m a regular chess player. I wish I could but I can t. I ve got Blitzin open right now. But, I ll just go and lose a bunch of games if I go and play laughs. Rob I was trying to download Blitzin and get it set up so we could play but I don t think I can do that and talk to you at the same time.

I tried and failed. In your book, The Education of a Value Investoryou talk a little bit about chess and bridge games and their relationship to investing. I wanted to explore that a little bit, if we could. One thing about chess I ve really gotten back into the game a lot in the last year and will listen to Grand Masters.

He s ranked 14th in the world. You can watch him on chess24 play speed chess with different players and he ll talk about the game as he s playing. Of course, he s winning virtually every single game. The thing I ve noticed is you ll see a position and in my mind I m trying to calculate as I m following the game Okay, he can move his knight there and the other side will move their bishop there, and then he can move his rook He just instantly sees a three, four, or five move combination and he talks about it.

Peter Svidler is one of them. In a blink of an eye he sees it. I know he s a Grandmaster but still, how do you calculate that quickly. At first I wondered, how in the world he could calculate that. After watching him for awhile I realized, you don t. He s not calculating at all. He just sees the pattern. He recognizes the pattern, thinking fast and slow for example. I m thinking slow and probably coming out with a bad result. He s thinking fast because he doesn t really have to think at all.

It made me wonder, iq option nao abre there patterns you see as you re evaluating companies or industries in selecting investment possibilities. Are there patterns that you ve recognized over time that can help you identify investing opportunities. Guy I don t think I m particularly good at it but I think there are patterns of human behavior that I can certainly start to recognize even though I m not necessarily good at managing myself in those patterns.

I get very concerned with situations where there is an enormous amount of controversy. What I really love is situations where there is an enormous amount of fear and that fear is not rationally based. I think people are just not looking there. I haven t come across those situations too often but I can see that happen very, very clearly now and I know if I m operating in a place where that s the case.

That s why I think Warren Buffett is so confident that no matter what direction the market has turned and how overvalued things get and how competitive the investment gain gets, there are always going to be pockets where people are just fearful and don t want to tread. And, if you re willing to tread there, then you ll do fine. I just remembered, a way to reinforce that pattern for me, was in the height of the financial crisis Warren Buffett bought shares of Goldman Sachs.

And, it s just incredible because all mayhem was breaking loose and he dove straight into the middle of it and bought shares of Goldman Sachs. There was very little certainty about the way things were going to unfold. I think that was an example of him saying, This is a valuable company. There is a lot of uncertainty around it but these guys are smart and will figure it out. And I m buying into that uncertainty.

And I m buying into that fear. Which, by the way, you re probably going to bring it up later, is exactly what is really hard about companies like Amazon and Netflix and which doesn t exist. The emotional pattern you need to get in to buy Amazon or Netflix right now is to say, Yes, those guys are all exuberant about the future of this company but I m even more exuberant.

You re buying on top of other peoples exuberance and that s a very, very different place to say, buying Goldman Sachs in the middle of the financial crisis. It s not an analytical pattern but it s an emotional pattern. I think that what s hard when you look at analytical patterns. I wrote my annual report about bundling. Economies are bundling or scaled economies, share.

And what s really frustrating about that is that often other people see those patterns as well, if not better, than I do. So I m coming late into that game. But the fear pattern is a really, really valuable one. I think once you do extraordinarily well without such good analytical abilities in general, you ought to buy off a fearful buyer.

You want to be a buyer when other people are fearful. And there s no fear. I think there are some people that would never be able to beat you or me at chess because they re not analytical thinkers. But, they get a sense of that. They get a sense of where they want to be. There is a guy I met not so long ago who lives in Geneva of all places, who is a retailer. At the time, he was putting all of his money into Canadian real estate.

And actually, it was really clear that commodity prices had come down. The tar sands oil was no longer profitable so Canada was suffering but he was buying real estate in downtown Toronto. He had a sense that that would turn out fine over time. He was shifting his whole real estate portfolio into Toronto real estate. And, he didn t know that much about Toronto real estate but he knew he was buying into a situation which wasn t entirely distressed, but there was fear.

There was lack of liquidity and people in Canada were very, very unhappy. But he wasn t buying some speculative he was buying into real estate where he knew, one way or another, this would work out for him. So he wasn t being as greedy as he possibly could. He wasn t buying into tar sands companies that were losing enormous amounts of money and filing for bankruptcy. I think he was buying downtown Toronto real estate.

Yeah, I think there are patterns and you get better at it. Rob You mentioned the book, The Manual of Ideaswhich in some ways I see almost as a book of patterns. I think of Deere Company, which Berkshire owns, but with crop prices down and farmers not buying equipment they struggled. The one I use, that I guess is really the fear pattern but is when a company s stock is beaten down for cyclical reasons.

But, there s no way that s a permanent situation. That s going to change. To me that s kind of like low-hanging fruit. You don t know when. That just seems to me like an easy decision. Guy Actually, I ve not really studied Deere Company but I think having met somebody who used to work for Sargenta, companies like Deere Company and farming companies are in the business of organizing the farming supply chain. Thus, participating in the earnings of agricultural land and helping agricultural yields improve and helping the returns to farmers improve.

They re kind of surrounding the farm. There are four or five suppliers who surround the farm and make money effectively in partnership with the farmer. The fact that they re in a position to make and sell equipment to the farmer means they re in an ongoing financial relationship with the farmer and in a position to propose all sorts of other solutions to their farms.

Unless you think that farms are going to disappear which is not the case then Deere Company will have opportunities to make money. But it s worth saying that you still want to know that they re not open-leveraged. There are a whole bunch of other things one wants to know. There may be marginal supplies of farms which don t make it through this cycle. Another pattern and again, Warren Buffett is the master of it. I was sitting at the Berkshire meeting during the financial crisis and I own shares of Shaw Harley-Davidson and I discovered that Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway had become a lender to Harley-Davidson.

He was asked that question at the annual meeting and he just said, If we don t have to make a bet on exactly how well Harley-Davidson will do, then we don t want to have to make that bet and we re offering perfectly decent returns at a more secure place in the capital structure so we took it. So this idea of, you don t want to be on the margins of economic activity you want to be at the center. You want to be in the things that humanity can t do without. It was inevitable that Berkshire Hathaway would end up in power generation, for example, because that just drives everything.

That s another pattern is the decision I m making taking me closer to the core of economic activity or is it taking me to the edges. Am I buying derivatives and options or am I buying debt ownerships in companies. And he s constantly moving his portfolio towards the center. At the time he made his investment in Washington Post, I don t think any of us ever thought this was I mean, we talked about one-newspaper towns and this was considered to be at the core of advertising, the core of how you reached consumers and the ability to advertise in a local newspaper was one of the most important ways in which retailers reached potential consumers.

That s just been completely blown apart. You have to have an awareness that on a regular basis the companies you might think are at the center may not be in the future. Actually, when it comes to power distribution, I don t think it will change. Power used to be generated by a small number of very large power plants and increasingly power is being generated by wind plants and solar plants. Solar installations on people s roofs, heat exchanges, and so forth. It becomes a far more distributed generating capacity in which, if you own the transmission as a power company you re probably fine, but if you just own centralized generating capacity you may not be fine.

The world is changing all the time. Rob And that sort of distribution is happening in industry after industry. I should say too, and I apologize to you and the listeners also I ve been fighting a cold for 10 days so I m trying my best not to cough into the microphone. You mentioned Harley-Davidson. Does your fund invest in debt at all or is it all equities. Guy I can invest in anything I like, Rob. My regulators here or the people who represent the regulators have a hard time understanding that.

I keep on having to pull out my fund documents to show them the investors have agreed and understood that I can invest in anything. Having said that I can invest in anything most of the time, I m invested in the equities and securities of publicly-created companies because I think that offers the best risk reward. Debt securities are lovely but you re not going to get a significant reward out of them. You might get a few percentage points better than the bond rate.

In equities you can double and triple your money if you re in the right places. That s where the risk reward is really, really good. So long as you re in conservative funded companies, the value of your principal ought never be in doubt. Although, I had my head handed to me a couple years ago when the equity of a company I thought ought not to be in doubt, ended up being worthless.

Yes, I invest in equities, securities as I m sure most of your listeners do which is the right place to be if you re saving for retirement or saving for the education of your children. That s where we all ought to be. Here s another pattern. This comes from an interview I did attend the Daily Journal meeting which is where Charley Munger holds court once a year. Somebody was asking him about some investment path I think was venture capital and he just looked at him and said, Look, that s an insider s game.

I ll never win at that insider s game unless I work 20 years to be an insider. He talked about, if I m not mistaken, real estate as well. Real estate is a very local insider s game in the vast majority of cases. I was glad they had become a lender but slightly miffed that he hadn t bought the shares. We all understand that there is a retail location, for example, that s just never worked. And often it s not easy to understand. I m thinking of a Chinese restaurant that opened up on a corner not far away from where I live, where just nobody iq option nao abre been able to make a retail operation work there.

I feel bad for the current occupier s because they haven t made it work either. So he distinguishes between those kinds of businesses where insiders are winners almost always but outsiders are winners almost never and investment opportunities where the playing field has been leveled so that outsider s can also win. In our local neighborhoods we will understand the nuances of the planning commission and what going on, on a particular corner.

That s clearly a question he asks himself very quickly when he s assessing something. He just doesn t plan things where insider s can win against outsiders. He doesn t feel any sense of remorse or envy over the money venture capitalists are making or that blockbuster movies make or the real estate people make in their local markets. He s waiting for those opportunities where he can say, I m an outsider but I ll do fine in this.

If you take the publicly traded equities, and the best example of that is indexing. Indexing is a game where an outsider can win if you just stay put and do dollar-cost averaging. You re defined to it, not by law, but you re defined to win. Iq option nao abre are plenty of other publicly traded securities where the information that I m getting is the same as the information everybody else is getting so I have a chance of playing on a level playing field.

There are some publicly traded securities where it s not a level playing field. It ought to be but it isn t. So that s a pattern. Rob Turning from patterns to Amazon, just to kind of tee-up this question, I ve said on this podcast, and I ve written on Forbes, that I think Amazon is a wonderful company. I have their credit card, I m a Prime member. It doesn t give a pattern of whether to invest or not but it is a simple pattern that allows us to decide whether we want to proceed down a particular route of analysis to see if we want to make the announcement.

I watch their videos. I listen to their music. I buy from Amazon more than I should. And I ve also said that I think it s a lousy investment because of the valuation. So, imagine my surprise when I m reading your annual report I m showing Guy throughout the video I got it. And in it you have and this is not new. Your approach is a little bit different this year but I think it s great. You sort of do a case-study or postmortem.

In this case it was two stocks that you considered buying and passed on. One was Valiant, and I don t think we need to spend any time on that unless you want to. But obviously, you dodged a bullet there. But then Amazon you regret not buying Amazon. I think you were comparing 2012 is when I think you considered buying and someone I think it was Nick Sleep, was very bullish on Amazon.

Guy Yeah, it was Nick. Rob If you compare the price in 2012 to today, I think any of us would wish we would have purchased it because back then it probably had a market cap of about 88 billion. And today it s 450 billion or 500 billion. I think anyone would have liked to buy if you just focused on the price but help us understand as a value investor, why you viewed Amazon as a good investment in 2012.

The answer I m going to give you is one I will need to listen to myself. The biggest danger we have as value investors is that we fall into value traps. Guy I think you ve teed this up in a beautiful way. There are plenty of things that are cheap on some metric scales that is actually not going to make this much money. The obvious value trap and there are many different kinds of value traps.

I used to get very excited when I looked at small-cap companies and I d see that they were trading at some ridiculous multiple of earnings. The value trap there was where the management and the board of directors are using the company kind of as a retirement plan. In theory, the management can be removed and you could release all that value and pay somebody a lot less money to do the same job.

In practice, it s impossible to remove the management. There is value embedded there but you re never going to be able to get it out. There was this famous case with Bill Ackman and a real estate company. It was called, First Union Realty, I believe. He went and decided to fight the management on the fact that they were doing this and the management turned around and said, If you want to do this to us, we ll destroy the value.

By the time he won, he had lost because the value inside the company had been destroyed. We re buying into outside passive minority investors, but buying into vehicles where we re unlikely to change the course of event and unlikely to make any significant changes to the way the company is being run so we have to buy into a vehicle that s capable of becoming more valuable ideally, and sharing that value with all of the other shareholders. That s a hard thing to find. There are plenty of companies that are just not growing and if you own a company that s not growing first of all, the margin of safety has to be greater.

If they re not reinvesting money at a good rate of return if you buy a dollar bill and in 10 years time it s still a dollar bill, even buying it for 10 cents on the dollar may not be cheap enough given you may have to sell it at a discount. Whereas, if you have a dollar bill that s growing very rapidly, you might even want to pay a dollar for it if it s going at 30 percent PR. The company is small enough and they control enough of the shares that they re sucking an enormous amount of the value that has been created in the company out as direct payments to the management.

That is part of the analysis we have to do and it s dangerous for iq option nao abre growth of one s wealth to be invested in one or another kind of value trap. I guess this is all a long way of saying that we have to Warren Buffet said somewhere that growth and value are joined at the hip. They re all part of the same thing. All intelligent investing is value investing. There is no great honor in buying a company that just has cheap metrics for the sake of buying cheap metrics and holding out some flag that says, I m a true value investor.

You have to be willing in fact, you re better off engaging with better businesses and trying to understand how that value is growing and whether we want to own and pay up for that better business. That s just a very long way of saying that just because you or I consider ourselves value investors doesn t mean that we throw out of consideration, a company for which we have to pay up. Obviously, then the question is how do much do we pay up for that business.

In the case of Amazon, there is a very strong argument for paying up. Going back into the world of value traps, I m going to take you through, if you allow me for about four or five minutes, the analysis of an investment I had which was kind of a value trap. I discovered this company called, RLI Replacement Lens Insurance company that regularly wrote combined ratio of well below 100 which meant that just from the insurance operational side, they were highly profitable and you didn t even have to worry.

The vast majority of insurance companies were unprofitable on the insurance side but they make their money on investments. I figured out that you wanted to buy insurance companies who had low combined ratios were comfortable as underwriters. Researching their annual reports we know that one of the things he talks about regularly is how his insurance operations make money purely on the underwriting side. I owned RLI Insurance for about four or five years and the share prices were going nowhere which, of course, was more than a mind of frustration for me and I kept trying to figure out why.

A big part of the reason why was because they just couldn t grow their sales. They couldn t grow their insurance underwriting and when I dug deeper into why they couldn t grow their insurance underwriting it made an enormous amount of sense in that the way they got comfortable underwriting was to find the buyer who had nowhere else to go.

They had an unusual insurance problem to solve that couldn t be solved by the normal and competitive markets. It needed an entrepreneurial underwriter who was willing to underwrite that unusual risk. So the buyer would pay an enormous amount of money for that insurance but you can be sure as hell that they were very reluctant to pay.

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